Dan Kanemitsu has been at it for so long, and for so much, he is one-stop shop for all your needs. I find no need to parrot what he has to say.
But I want to repeate it. So I will, with my own thoughts added:
- Understand this bill only adds authority from Tokyo prefectural government to further direct anime/manga/games to be rated “adult-only.” You can still buy and import them, but it will impact the sales of certain games/manga/anime because they cannot be prominently marketed as they are AO.
- There are already a ton of stuff that is adult only before the passage of this law, like your average rape manga or porn games. This will just further include things like lolicon crap that shows but doesn’t “do” anything and other seinen-level servicy things, assuming they’re edgy enough. Yosuga no Sora anime, Qwaser (LOL CHAMPION RED), etc.
- The real problem is the chilling effect in which additional level of censorship will do. Some estimates the largest harm that comes about will be for ero doujinshi (which is a whole lot of them) and aforementioned seinen stuff. BL and Yuri stuff should be unaffected unless it also crosses over into those categories. Rape may be the biggest trip wire, but we’ll see.
- The biggest economic harm will be afflicted on publishers of those sort of seinen stuff, which is why the big 10 manga publishers are boycotting the Tokyo Anime Fest next year, which is chaired by the governor of Tokyo prefecture, Shintarou Ishihara.
See the translations from DarkMirage for some post-rape luls. Who Framed Shintarou Ishihara would be a great idea?